World Gold Council predicts further strengthening of gold price

Gold’s performance in the first three months of 2016 was the precious metal’s best quarterly showing for almost 30 years.

The gold price rose by 17 per cent in US dollar terms and performed better that other major commodities and bonds, the World Council said.

It put the sparkling first quarter down to concerns about growth and financial stability in emerging markets and negative interest rate policies put in place by major central banks. It also rallied because of a break in the increasing value of the US dollar and benefited from a combination of the return of demand for gold and investors’ decisions to put their money into bullion on the back of its rising value.

The World Gold Council’s quarterly analysis expects these factors to feed into continued demand for gold over the next few quarters. It said that comparing the last three months to previous cycles suggests that “we may be entering a new bull market for gold”.

The report said there have been five bull markets followed by five bear markets for gold since the 1970s. During the previous bear markets, which lasted an average of 52 months, the gold price dipped by between 35 per cent 55 per cent.

“History also shows that two consecutive quarters of strong returns have typically resulted in a more sustained rally,” said the World Gold Council.

“So far, we have had one very strong quarter. But inflows into gold look, to us, set to remain robust in second quarter, as the current macroeconomic environment remains supportive for both investment and central bank demand.”

Demand for gold bullion coins among investors has also been high in January to March. Figures from the US Mint show that sales of 22 carat gold Eagles and 24 carat gold Buffalo coins combined were 51 per cent higher than in the first quarter of 2015.